Fantasy

A Sure-Fire Way to Dominate Your Fantasy Football League

Every NFL season I watch as the idiots at ESPN, NFL Network, CBS Sports, and some others unveil their annual Fantasy Football studs and busts. Not trying to brag, but it has been the same just about every year since I first got into Fantasy Football in the late 1990s. It's simply my thing, and the poor analysts seem to rarely get it right. Last year, 2013, I enrolled in 20 Fantasy Football leagues. I went to the Playoffs in 17 of them, and I won 12 Championships out of the 20 leagues I was enrolled in. If you will listen to me you will win your league.




33% of your path to success rests in your ability to draft the right players. Here are some ground rules you should bear in mind when preparing your draft:

-Take your Pre-Rankings seriously, but it's not the be-all, end-all
-Don't go Chalk
-Don't trust injury-prone players
-Be patient
-Watch the Byes
-Get that Defense
-And then get another
-Don't take the best kicker
-Keep up with the news (Texans' QB)
-Don't get married (to players)

Take your Pre-Rankings seriously, but it's not the be-all, end-all

The first few players matter, for sure, especially if you have the #1 overall draft pick in your league. As long as you aren't just, really stupid, you should be ok here. Right now, ESPN's top 2 FF gurus have Adrian Peterson ranked #1 overall. I disagree here, but it's really just semantics vs. probabilities...again, as long as you aren't a complete moron. If I had the #1 overall pick right now, I would take Peyton Manning, who is primed for another record-breaking year. Why wouldn't he be? He still has 3 of his top 4 receivers from last year, same O-Line, and he's ticked off now. I take him #1, then (in a 12-team league) I take 2 of the following: Alfred Morris, LeVeon Bell, Zac Stacy, or a high-ranked receiver. You might draft a RB, which is fine. Instead of Manning, Morris, and Bell, you have Jamaal Charles, Cam Newton, and Morris/Bell. The statistical drop-off between Manning and Newton is comparable to Charles-Morris/Bell, so decisions like that really come down to your fan favorites. We will talk about specific players later.

Don't Go Chalk

Don't you be that GM who drafts Brees and then Newton just because he was the best player available. "Well I can trade him later." No. You can't. Not for maximum value. Choose your players based on need, not value. Now... Matthew Stafford is still on the board in Round 7, but you already have a QB. By all means, draft him. This also goes for those idiots who like to make their first 3 picks all Running Backs. Those guys never win their leagues because you can't win a league with Kordell Stewart as your QB.

Don't Trust Injury-Prone Players

Stay away from the Gronkowskis, Amendolas, and Fred Taylors. Someone has to draft them, I know. Don't let it be you.

Be Patient

In Auction leagues especially, the Championship team-to-be will always be one of the very last ones to finish their draft. The rules for drafting a Championship team in an Auction league are simple: Draft ONE (and only one) stud, the definition of "stud" here being someone who costs more than 20% of your entire payroll, i.e. Calvin Johnson, Aaron Rodgers, etc; Get good quality in your starting slots; Wait, wait, and wait for optimum depth. I guarantee you will be able to get high-quality players for a dollar apiece if you are patient enough. For Snake leagues, patiently wait for your players, don't draft them too high, and have back-ups waiting for when your heart gets broken and your players are picked. Don't join Auto-pick leagues. Those just are not fun.

  

     Watch the Byes

Excited about Frank Gore being your 3rd RB? Not when you realize that he and your starter share the same Bye week. Scatter your byes and be sure to include this factor into who you draft. 

Get That Defense

I will never, ever, ever understand this, but Fantasy Football GMs just do not value Defenses. I always get the best defenses every year, and they are always a big part of why I win my leagues. And yes, I said Defenses, with a plural. Don't be afraid to grab that Seahawks D in Round 6. Guess what? Take San Francisco with your next pick. Let me explain why. Are you really going to start Seattle's Defense @ Green Bay in Week 8? Of course not. But that's ok. You took my advice and you drafted Carolina's Defense, and they are at Home vs. Jacksonville. Multiple Defenses give you OPTIONS.

 Stay Away From Kickers

There is never any way to tell which kickers will have the best seasons, let alone the best weeks. Don't waste valuable picks on kickers. Instead, wait until the very last round and just take one that you know will at least score a bunch of points. Especially in today's high-scoring NFL, there is no reason you should get hung up on any particular kicker.

Keep Up With the News

"Hmm... Should I trust Ryan Fitzpatrick as my back-up QB?" Well, if you read the news you know that he is halfway decent; however, Andre Johnson wants out of Houston, Arean Foster is starting to get a reputation of injury-proneness, they have no Tight End you have ever heard of, and they lost Ben Tate to free agency. Your #1 overall pick could be determined by your take on how well Bridgewater will do in the cold weather thereby impacting AP), or how Nick Foles and LeSean McCoy are getting along. 

Don't Get Married To Your Players

It's ok to pledge some sort of allegiance to NFL players who have saved your bacon in the past. I wrote Jordan Cameron a Thank-You letter last year for proving to be the difference for me in 2 of my leagues. Just don't ever get too attached that you allow them to overstay their welcome. (Just look at that guy who just drafted Darren Sproles).

33% of your path to success rests in your ability to START the right players. Here are some ground rules you should bear in mind when selecting players each week:

-Analyze the match-ups

-Be Aware of Teammates' Statuses

-Church-proof Roster

-Check the Weather

-Look at Other Stats

-Enjoy Defenses Benefits

Analyze the Match-ups

This sounds so simple, yet I have to say it. Don't put in Brandon Marshall just because he is Brandon Marshall. If the Bears are @ New England, he is going to have a Revis-sized headache all day, and you will want to start Alshon Jeffrey if you are lucky enough to have him. You don't start Aaron Rodgers @ Seattle if you have Romo at Home vs. the Eagles. The only spot this does not really apply to is Tight End. You should really have only one TE, and he should be an automatic start every week. Look at players' past game logs as a major tool to help analyze match-ups.

Be Aware of Teammates' Statuses

The Offensive Line is important here. Tyron Smith, Tony Romo's All-Pro Offensive Tackle, is responsible for protecting his blind side. You can bet that if Smith is missing the game @ Houston because of a leg injury, I will not be starting Romo. If you have been enjoying 3 fruitful weeks of Carlos Hyde racking up all those TDs for the 49ers, you might want to know when Frank Gore is starting to feel better before starting one of them. 

Church-Proof Your Roster

You check your watch, and it's 11:55. Jay Glazer alerts you on your mobile that Mason Crosby got mad and kicked an anvil, won't play. The problem is that Reverend Jones won't expedite the sermon's conclusion, and your roster will soon be doomed with an injured player taking up a valuable spot. Again, if you really want to win your league, be prepared. Have a friend available, get the fantasy app on your phone, feign illness for 18 consecutive weeks, or become a pastor, whatever. 

Check the Weather

You don't want Peyton Manning starting @Buffalo during a blizzard. Don't even draft players like Terry Bridgewater, who will be playing half his games outside in freezing Minneapolis. Some players, such as Rodgers, have already proven their value no matter what the conditions are. 

Look at Other Statistics

Again, you might roll your eyes that I am telling you something so basic, but many people actually have a hard time remembering this. This is exactly why I put McCoy and Charles above AP. Run an analysis on all Receptions/Yds/TDs from all the Running Backs before you draft. Then run them on all your RBs before you start them each week to monitor their progress. Look at your QBs' rushing yards, picks, and fumbles. As far as your Defenses go, you should put more trust in Pts. allowed, and less trust in Total Fantasy Pts, as those numbers can become quite inflated, especially at the beginning of the season. For example, it's Week 7 now. The Jacksonville Defense is the #2 Fantasy D, because they returned 3 INTs for TDs last week. Don't trust them. That was one game. Look at how many points they have given up the last 7 weeks, instead. If you are playing in a Fantasy League that gives pts for return yardage, keep that in mind for your receivers.

Enjoy Defenses Benefit

Remember when I told you to draft the best defense you know of, and then to draft another solid defense? If you did that, you will be smiling every week when you are plugging one of them in. Personally, I try to draft the maximum of 3 Defenses every league I am in, but that does not always work out. 

The other 33% of your success hinges on your ability to capitalize on Free Agency within your league. Following these simple tips, tossing in a little wheeling and dealing could prove to be the difference in almost winning and winning it all.

-Scour, scour, and re-scour Free Agency before Thursday Night

-Look Ahead for Defenses/Kickers

-Sort and Filter, Sort and Filter

Scour, scour, and re-scour Free Agency before Thursday Night

Check Free Agency sometime on Tuesday (before waivers clear). You should be checking up on players who had break-out games, injured players almost ready to come back, and promising players impatient GMs have dropped. If you have a high waiver priority, don't use it unless you are sure it's a lock. If Matt Flynn comes in and throws 4 TDs in Rodgers' place, wait until he does it again! If you just need a kicker, don't ever waste a waiver request. Just wait until Wednesday and pick him up. You aren't finished. Check Free Agency again before the Thursday night game. By the way, get used to those annoying Thursday night games. It doesn't look like the NFL is going to eliminate those any time soon. Check again before the Sunday early games. Championships take due diligence-- believe me, you will find jewels people toss away on the waiver wire.

Look Ahead for Defenses/Kickers

Especially for Defenses (and positions you are crucially weak in, likely due to injury), LOOK AHEAD! If you see that Cleveland, who has absolute worst Offense in the league in this scenario, will be @Buffalo next week, and Buffalo's D is not that bad, AND it will be really friggin cold, go ahead and pick up the Bills Defense. At the very least, you've got 6-8 pts, and the potential for 5 times that much.

Sort and Filter, Sort and Filter

Whether it's ESPN, Yahoo, or a more legitimate gambling site, study and learn the sorting and filtering system they offer. When checking the Free Agent market, look at players' stats over the past 4 weeks, break down averages against only that team they are playing, or look ahead to projected stats. Don't trust the numbers entirely or let them make you crazy, but use them to your advantage for sure.

I will have the complete rankings (QBs, RBs, etc.) at the end. For now, let's look at the individual positions. Without further ado, let's get to the individual player rankings:

Quarterbacks:

     Experts

1 Manning

2 Brees

3 Rodgers

4 Luck

5 Stafford

6 Kaepernick

7 Foles

8 Newton

9 Griffin

10 Brady

11 Ryan

12 Romo

13 Wilson

14 Rivers

15 Cutler

16 Dalton

17 Roeth

18 Alex Smith

19 Tannehill

20 E Manning

My Rankings:

1 Manning

2 Rodgers

3 Brees

4 Luck

5 Newton

6 Foles

7 Rivers

8 Ryan

9 Brady

10 Stafford

11 Dalton

12 Romo

13 Griffin

14 Kaepernick

15 Bradford

16 Wilson

17 Cutler

18 A Smith

19 E Manning

20 Roeth

Explanations:

1-4: Manning, Brees/Rodgers, Luck

The experts and I agree on the Top 4, save for flip-flopping Brees and Rodgers. It's true that Brees passes more, but if Rodgers stays healthy the entire season he still tops Brees' numbers. Luck has climbed up to a solid grip on #4 with a unanimous stamp. It will take a solid year for him to keep that trust he has gained. DON'T BE FOOLED HERE: Luck is NOT in the same category as the other 3. A crystal clear drop-off is evident after the first 3 QBs (and fluke seasons by other QBs).

#5: Cam Newton

The experts have him down at #8. They had him ranked low last off-season, too, and he made them look stupid. So now they put him down at #8 again! His legs alone keep him in the Top 10 QBs, and then he somehow poops out 25 TDs to mediocre/crappy receivers. If you have a Top 3 Draft pick, you should be drafting Newton or Luck with your 2nd pick.

#6, 7: Nick Foles and Philip Rivers

Experts have Foles at 7 and Rivers way down at 14. Rivers had 32 TDs to go along with only 11 picks and 4,500 yards. He also had the 4th-highest QB rating. I really don't understand why he doesn't get higher projections than 14th. As far as Foles, it looks like everybody knows his 27 TDs and 2 INTs are setting 2014 up for a great season for him. Do keep in mind that he lost DeSean Jackson, but he does have Maclin coming back, and still has Riley Cooper (and Darren Sproles, for what that is worth).

#8-10: Brady, Dalton, Stafford

Again, Dalton (Experts #16) doesn't get any respect. He has possibly the 2nd best receiver in Green, and has some solid RB support. He did toss 20 Ints last year, but he also had 33 Touchdowns. He's still young and should see those picks decrease this season. Brady had a "bad year" and still threw 25/11 TDs to INTs. Still, Belichick keeps bringing in injury-prone players, and did nothing to combat that in the off-season. I don't like Stafford, but he did add the best TE in the draft AND Golden Tate. If he doesn't break out into a Top-5 fantasy QB this year, he won't.

#11-13: Kaepernick, Romo, Griffin

Kaepernick shrugged off a tough off-season of scandals and will come back happy with the additions of Steve Johnson and Carlos Hyde. His ability to run should put him in the Top 10 this season. Jerry Jones added some O-Line protection during the off-season, which should help Romo have another fine season. He threw 31/10 last year. Griffin is a huge question mark, but he is worth taking a risk on AS A #2 QB!! Do not trust him with your starting duties until he proves himself. 

#14: Matt Ryan

Ryan had a tough season with injuries to Julio Jones and some horrid Offensive Line support, to go along with some terrible luck. Expect him and the Falcons to bounce back in '14. 

#15: Sam Bradford

The experts don't have him in their Top 20, and I don't blame them. He has never really panned out; however, he is my sleeper for this season. He had some great games to finish out last season before he got injured (He had 14/4 TDs/Ints), he has a potential Pro-Bowler in Zac Stacy now, and he added Gregg Robinson in the draft. Still, he is in the toughest division in football. You should definitely draft him as your back-up and start him against the not-NFC West defenses.

#16-20: Wilson, Cutler, A Smith, E Manning, Roethlisberger

Stay away from these guys. Wilson, Smith, and Roeth are game managers who may or may not get you 2-3 TDs if you start them, and the other 2 are absolute Interception machines. 

Running Backs:

Experts

1 Charles

2 McCoy

3 Peterson

4 Forte

5 Lacy

6 Lynch

7 (LeVeon) Bell

8 Foster

9 Bell

10 Murray

11 Bernard

12 Stacy

13 Ball

14 Martin

15 Morris

16 Bush

17 Ellington

18 Spiller

19 Mathews

20 Vereen

My Rankings

1 McCoy

2 Charles

3 Forte

4 Peterson

5 Lacy

6 Lynch

7 Foster

8 Morris

9 Mathews

10 Martin

11 Stacy

12 Bush

13 Gore

14 Johnson

15 Bernard

16 Bell

17 Ball

18 Murray

19 Ellington

20 Spiller

Explanations

#1-4: McCoy, Charles, Forte, Peterson

The experts agreed with me, but flip-flopped these 4. Charles was statistically better than McCoy last year, but I put McCoy ahead for the upcoming season. They lost DeSean Jackson, so odds are they will be relying on McCoy just a bit more. Don't be afraid of them adding Sproles to take away carries. Charles and Forte are no slouches. It was difficult to arrange these 3. They are just as deadly with the receptions than McCoy. As far as AP, I dropped him to #4 because he will have an unproven QB, no matter who it is, AND he will be playing in rough conditions for the next 2 years. That is not good for a partially injury-prone RB.

#5-7: Lacy, Lynch, Foster

I would definitely nab Manning/Brees/Rodgers before any of these guys. Lacy is a freak, and could make a move into the Top 4 this season, as could Foster if he can stay healthy. That is a huge "if," especially since he doesn't have a very reliable QB. Andre Johnson's possible departure also spells bad news for him. As far as Lynch, he is gravely overworked, and I smell injury this season. You can draft him and I won't mock you, but I won't draft him.

#8-10: Morris, Mathews, Martin

The experts have all these guys ranked lower because they are smoking crack. After a spectacular rookie year, Morris's production suffered a bit because Griffin's did. Don't expect a repeat of that. They have a more offensive-set head coach now, and Morris will have another solid year, despite whatever Griffin may do. Ryan Mathews put together the quietest 1,450-yard season (receptions included) that I have ever heard of. I had to do a double-take when I saw his stats. The most encouraging number from him is his 4.4 ypc. Expect more good numbers in '14. Doug Martin is a huge question mark. New coach Lovie Smith wants to spread the ball around the other backs. This will obviously halt his numbers a bit, but it will also keep him healthy.

#11-13: Stacy, Bush, Gore

The experts have Stacy and Bush at #12 and #14, while they inexplicably left Gore off their Top 20. A healthy Bradford and super draft pick Gregg Robinson are only going to improve Zac Stacy's numbers. I may actually have him too low. Reggie Bush is going to be electrifying, as always, but you better handcuff Joique Bell to him in your line-up for when Bush gets his annual injury. Gore may be winding down his career, but not yet. He had 1,100 yards+ last year, and Carlos Hyde hasn't proven himself yet. Let's just wait and see before sending Gore into retirement.

#14: Chris Johnson

Here is another one the experts left off their list completely. He had a long overdue surgery in the off-season to repair his meniscus, and that actually may help him to regain some of his old speed. He is not bad for a RB2 in your league.

#15-17: Bernard, LeVeon Bell, Ball

I expected Cincinnati to release the Law Firm (Ben Jarvus-Green-Ellis), but it never happened. Still, expect Bernard to take over more of the starting duties. He really needs to improve on his ypc, but man is he explosive in the passing game or what? I am not sold on Bell as the long-term answer in Pittsburgh. He has a nose for the end zone, but his ypc are too low for a #1 RB. Draft him if you can get him low enough, but don't count on him to win your league for you. Montee Ball appears like he will has a pro-bowl season, but we can't be positive. 

#18-20: Murray, Ellington, Spiller

Stay away from injury-prone Murray, but if you can get him low enough in the draft he will certainly help you until he does get put on the shelf. Ellington is a big mystery. Again, take him in the lower rounds and make him your RB3 if you want, but don't cast all your chips on him. You know the rules here, if you take Spiller.....better get Freddy Jackson, who actually had a better year than Spiller last year.